英国利物浦大学经济论文代写:原油价格

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您可能已经读过世界石油供应将在几十年内耗尽。在80年代早期,人们常常认为在短短几年内石油供应将用于所有实际目的。幸运的是,这些预测并不准确。但是,我们将耗尽地球表面下的所有石油的想法仍然存在。由于碳氢化合物对气候的影响或者因为有更便宜的替代品,我们可能还有一段时间不再使用剩余的油。许多预测表明,在一段时间后我们将耗尽石油,这是基于对如何评估石油储备供应的错误认识。评估的一种典型方法是使用这些因素:因此,如果地下有1.5亿桶石油,而且我们每年使用1000万桶石油,那么这种思维方式将表明石油供应将在15年后耗尽。如果预测者意识到通过新的钻井技术,我们可以获得更多的石油,他将把这一点纳入他对#1的估计,对石油何时耗尽进行更乐观的预测。如果预测因素包含人口增长以及人均石油需求经常上升这一事实,他将把这一点纳入他对#2的估计中,从而做出更悲观的预测。然而,这些预测本质上是有缺陷的,因为它们违反了基本的经济原则。至少不是物理意义上的。从现在开始10年,从现在起50年,从现在起500年后,地下仍将有石油。无论你对仍然可以提取的石油量采取悲观或乐观的观点,这都将成立。我们假设供应确实非常有限。供应开始减少会发生什么?首先,我们期望看到一些水井干涸,要么更换相关成本较高的新井,要么根本不更换。这些都会导致泵的价格上涨。当汽油价格上涨时,人们自然会少购买;这种减少的数量取决于价格上涨的数量和消费者对汽油需求的弹性。这并不一定意味着人们会减少驾驶(尽管很可能),这可能意味着消费者将SUV换成小型汽车,混合动力汽车,电动汽车或使用替代燃料的汽车。每个消费者都会对价格变化作出不同的反应,因此我们希望看到从骑自行车到工作的所有人到装满林肯导航员的二手车的一切。

英国利物浦大学经济论文代写:原油价格

You may have read that the world oil supply will be exhausted in a few decades. In the early 1980s, it was often argued that in just a few years the oil supply would be used for all practical purposes. Fortunately, these predictions are not accurate. However, the idea that we will exhaust all the oil under the surface of the Earth still exists. Due to the climate impact of hydrocarbons or because there are cheaper alternatives, we may not use the remaining oil for some time. Many projections indicate that after a period of time we will run out of oil, based on a misconception of how to assess the supply of oil reserves. A typical method of assessment is to use these factors: therefore, if there are 150 million barrels of oil underground and we use 10 million barrels of oil a year, this way of thinking will indicate that the oil supply will be exhausted after 15 years. If the forecaster realizes that we can get more oil through the new drilling technology, he will include this in his estimate of #1 and a more optimistic forecast of when the oil will run out. If the predictor includes the fact that population growth and per capita oil demand are rising, he will include this in his estimate of #2 to make a more pessimistic forecast. However, these predictions are inherently flawed because they violate basic economic principles. At least not in the physical sense. From now on for 10 years, 50 years from now, 500 years from now, there will still be oil in the ground. Whether you take a pessimistic or optimistic view of the amount of oil that can still be extracted, this will be true. We assume that supply is indeed very limited. What happens when the supply starts to decrease? First, we expect to see some wells dry up, either replacing new wells with higher costs or not replacing them at all. These will cause the price of the pump to rise. When the price of gasoline rises, people naturally buy less; the amount of this reduction depends on the amount of price increase and the elasticity of consumer demand for gasoline. This does not necessarily mean that people will reduce driving (although it is likely), which may mean that consumers switch SUVs to small cars, hybrid cars, electric cars or cars that use alternative fuels. Every consumer reacts differently to price changes, so we want to see everything from cycling to work to used cars filled with Lincoln navigators.

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